What does discounting good and bad chances mean in Utrecht?
In Utrecht, discounting good and bad chances plays a key role in personal injury calculations. This principle takes account of future uncertainties for victims of accidents in the region, such as bicycle accidents on the canals or traffic incidents around the Utrechtse Heuvelrug. Judges and insurers weigh what realistically would have happened without the incident, based on local circumstances.
In loss of earning capacity damage, this is particularly relevant: would a Utrechter without the accident have become unemployed due to the local economy, or instead have been promoted at a company in the region?
Legal framework for Utrecht: statutory basis
The foundation lies in Article 6:98 DCC, whereby the court estimates the damage in an appropriate manner, and Article 6:97 DCC for past and future losses. The Supreme Court confirmed this in judgments such as HR 5 March 2004 (ECLI:NL:HR:2004:AM9069), in which investigation into chances ex officio is mandatory. In Utrecht cases, the District Court of Midden-Nederland applies this to local cases.
Practice in Utrecht for loss of earning capacity
For income damage, the hypothetical earnings without the accident are compared with the actual situation. Local factors such as the thriving tech sector or seasonal work in hospitality around the Dom influence this.
Bad chances: risks even without the accident?
Bad chances reduce the compensation, such as:
- Pre-existing complaints: A back problem that in Utrecht's physical work would also have caused disability for work.
- Local unemployment: Contraction in the construction sector around Utrecht.
- Age effects: Close to state pension age in a region with ageing population.
- Uncertain contracts: Flexible work at Utrecht startups without permanent prospects.
This leads to a discount on the Utrecht personal injury claim.
Good chances: missed opportunities due to the accident
Good chances increase the compensation, for example:
- Promotion at local employer: At a company on Utrecht Science Park.
- Salary increases: Collective labour agreement increases in the region.
- Career switch through training: From hospitality to IT via Utrecht courses.
- Own business: Starting up in the vibrant Utrecht city centre.
Opportunities missed due to the accident are taken into account.
Burden of proof and probability in Utrecht cases
Victims prove good chances; insurers prove bad chances. Judges use reasonable probability, with estimates of 10-90% depending on the facts. In Utrecht jurisprudence from the District Court of Midden-Nederland (Vrouwe Justitiaplein 1), this is often seen.
| Type of chance | Effect | Burden of proof | Utrecht examples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bad chance | Discount | Insurer | Back complaints, flexible work, local contraction |
| Good chance | Increase | Victim | Promotion Science Park, own business Domstad |
| Neutral | No adjustment | - | Stable job at Utrecht municipality |
Help in Utrecht
Consult District Court of Midden-Nederland, Vrouwe Justitiaplein 1, Utrecht or Juridisch Loket Utrecht, Catharijnesingel 55 for tailored advice.